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Prediction for CME (2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-16T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26949/-1
CME Note: Wide, complex, difficult to analyze CME with primary directionality (bulk) to the southwest in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs but containing features also seen to the west, south, and southeast along a discontinuous front. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk from 2023-09-16T07:00Z to 09:00Z seen best in SDO/GOES 304; filament extends from N30W00 southwest through N10W30 with a minor, more narrow segment extending back east from N10W30 back towards S03W05. Arrival signature: Sudden sharp jump in solar wind parameters with B total reaching 21 nT and speed increasing above 550 km/s. May be indicative of additional coronal hole high speed stream influences (Tarik Salman, LASSOS team) from coronal hole at central meridian on 2023-09-15. Less likely but possible that this is a combined arrival of this CME and the 2023-09-14T23:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-18T12:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-19T07:27Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-16 16:00
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-16 09:12
 - Radial speed: 523.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N02W30
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 562.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-09-19 07:27 (i.e. predicted transit time: 70.25 hours)
Lead Time: 43.55 hour(s)
Difference: -18.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-09-16T17:25Z
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